GAME CHARACTERISTICS:
Now you have to admit that there are good games and there are bad games. Even a beginner soon realizes this sometime during his first day in a casino. All table selection strategies are based on the fact of game characteristics. Think about it! If all games were random, there would be no game characteristics. That's what random means: without patterns; without characteristics. If the cards were random, all games would be the same.
SHUFFLE TACTICS:
Why do casinos change their shuffle? Isn't a random shuffle a random shuffle? If the cards are random, why wouldn't all casinos use the same shuffle and never change it? You don't suppose they are trying to influence the game, do you? They would never try to control the amount of clumping, would they? How could they, if the cards are random? LOW CARD CLUMPS: Recognize that clumping the high cards effectively clumps the low cards. Where else could they be? Remember those rounds with no tens? Or maybe two or three or more rounds in a row? 'Oh well, you can expect that with random cards.
DEALER BREAK SUBVERSION:
The more the cards are clumped, the less the dealer breaks. The "stand plays" (stand with less than 17) and the "double" and "split" plays constitute the very essence of basic strategy. All of these critical plays were computed against the risk factor generated by a normal dealer break ratio of one dealer break for every 3.5 rounds played. Think about it. When was the last time you saw a dealer break that often? When the casino tampers with this ratio, they destroy the odds of the critical plays of basic strategy! Here's how it's done: The more the cards are clumped, the greater the incidence of both high and low card clumps. That is, after all, the definition of clumping. When the cards are dealt out of a high card clump of nines, tens, and aces, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Think about it! She never even hits, let alone breaks. Even if we add eights to the high card clumps, the dealer can only break on the rare occasion of a pair of eights. Likewise, when the cards are dealt out of a low card clump of ace through five, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Likewise, when the dealer's hit cards are dealt out of a similar low card clump, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. She must draw a card higher than five to break. If we add sixes, the dealer can only break on the rare occasion when she gets a 16 and is unlucky enough to draw a six. Note that I listed three separate common shoe game situations where THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Together, they cover a significant portion of the shoe. Remember those games where the dealer never broke? Now you know why. Yet basic strategy DEPENDS on the dealer breaking one out of 3.5 hands. It's not going to happen, is it?
STAND HAND SUBVERSION:
THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK during an ace through five low card clump. Yet, that is precisely when basic strategy says STAND and let the dealer break; when, in fact, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Therefore, The basic strategy player cannot win a single hard hand during ace through five low card clumps. In fact, he can't even get a push! Conversely, the dealer will win every hand during the low card clumps AGAINST EVERY BASIC STRATEGY PLAYER. Sixes do not significantly improve this dismal situation. Perhaps you are beginning to see that basic strategy was never meant for the shoe game. The shoe game IS a different animal and it DOES require a different approach.
WHY NO RIGID STRATEGY WORKS IN THE SHOE GAME:
We can define a rigid strategy as any strategy that charts rigid plays against the dealer up\card. While basic strategy is the original, other rigid strategies have been created in attempts to adapt basic strategy to the shoe game, While some may have shown improvement, none of them actually worked. None of them produced bottom line winners in the shoe game. The problem is that, by its nature, no rigid strategy can defeat the shoe game.
Here's why:
Any rigid strategy requires a constant target to shoot at; a constant target like random cards. Clumped cards present a moving, or variable target. In the shoe game, both the tens ratio and the dealer break ratio vary widely within the same shoe, as well as from shoe to shoe and from game to game. We have mentioned that the number of players, the number of decks, the shuffle, and elapsed play time all effect the level and type of clumping. A rigid strategy cannot effectively cope with these variable conditions. To accommodate variable conditions we require a variable strategy, a more logical perspective.
BASIC GAME COMPREHENSION:
AND YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW THE RULES. Most players believe they already have sufficient basic game comprehension and may overlook this important point. In reality, few players, including pro PRECISION BLACKJACK players and BS card counters, actually possess a thorough grasp of basic game comprehension This shortcoming will affect the quality of their play and their ability to fully grasp this! I want to list some game fine points to give you a world class perspective on basic game comprehension. Each of you will see some new twists in our interpretation of the rules.
PLAYERS - The player loses whenever he:
1. Stands short when the dealer makes it.
2. Makes a hand less than the dealer's.
3. Breaks. ******
1. Makes a hand less than the player's.
2. Breaks when the player doesn't.
4. Standing short is betting the dealer will break - nothing more.
5. Hitting a stiff is betting the dealer won't break - nothing more.
6. Whenever you stand short you lose - unless the dealer breaks.
7. Dealer breaking varies widely from an average of about 1 in 5.
8. The dealer break frequency tends to remain constant in a game.
9. It is foolish to stand short more often than the dealer is breaking.
10. The dealer cannot break on low cards of 1 through 5. 1.
11. The dealer cannot break with all high cards.
12. Forecasting dealer breaks offers our biggest gain potential.
13. Doubling is betting a single hit card will beat the dealer.
14. Insurance is betting the hole card is a 10 - nothing more.
15. The hole card is low just as often as it is high.
16. To break even on surrender we must be right 75%.
17. Splitting is merely deciding what hand we prefer to start with.
18. A dealer strategy player is only giving the house 2% odds.
19. You decide when and where to play, when to stop, how much to bet, when to double, split, insure, or surrender and how much to tip.
20. The dealer makes no decisions.
21. Betting is the art of predicting which hands we are most likely to win.
22. Predicting winning hands is the art of forecasting dealer breaks.
23. Forecasting dealer breaks is the art of Precision Blackjack.